The Deal: Cramer's 2014 Crystal Ball

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NEW YORK (The Deal) -- Jim Cramer took to his crystal ball again at The Deal Economy 2014 conference, predicting an active M&A environment next year, highlighted by social media stalwarts Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR).

TheStreet founder and host of CNBC's "Mad Money" made takeover predictions across a variety of business sectors during an address at The Deal's annual forecasting event held at the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, Dec. 5. (The Deal is a business unit of TheStreet. Cramer is a board member of TheStreet.)

Beginning with social media, Cramer cited the continuing rise in demand for smartphones and mobile applications and how companies need to utilize this technology in their corporate strategies.

"You need a strategy that captures the strength of those devices," Cramer said. Cramer predicted that Salesforce.com Inc. of Sunnyvale, Calif., and San Francisco-based Yelp Inc. can get looked at by major players such as Facebook, Twitter or even Yahoo! (YHOO). On the food and beverage side, Cramer predicted that Lake Success, N.Y.-based Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) can be taken over by a major cereal maker such as General Mills (GIS) or Kellogg (K). Cereal sales have been slumping as consumers opt for healthier snacks such as Greek yogurt and granola bars, resulting in major players to look for new growth channels. According to Cramer, Hain's stock has been up over 40% over the last year. In the energy sector, Cramer thinks Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) of Irving, Texas, is a buyout candidate. Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield claims the company has the biggest oil field outside of Saudi Arabia. If that proves to be true next year, Pioneer will most likely receive buyer interest, Cramer said. Cramer also likes Houston-based EOG Resources (EOG) as a takeover candidate, with chairman Mark Papa set to retire at the end of the year. Regarding Microsoft's (MSFT) CEO search, Cramer said the software conglomerate needs to bring in an executive who can get the company to refocus on its core assets. He said Ford Motor (F) CEO Alan Mulally, who has been reported as one of the candidates to replace Steven Ballmer, is the right man for the job. "Microsoft needs to bring in someone who will decide what can be kept and what should be spunoff and I think Alan is the guy to do that," Cramer said. Cramer returned to one of his predictions from last year: Johnson & Johnson JNJ. Cramer said the company remains a breakup candidate, a scenario he forecast last year. The company could be moving in that direction, having sold its McNeil PPC's feminine hygiene brands to Energizer Holdings Inc. for $185 million in cash in July. -- Written by Demitri Diakantonis

Green Mountain Coffee Earnings Start Stock Price Swinging

Source: courtesy Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) reported fourth fiscal quarter and full-year 2013 earnings after markets closed Thursday. For the quarter, the maker of the Keurig single-cup brewing system posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.89 on revenues of $1 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $0.64 on revenues of $946.7 million.Fourth-quarter results compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.75 and $964.56 million in revenues.

For the full year, adjusted EPS totaled $3.39 on revenues of $4.36 billion, compared with EPS of $2.40 on revenues of $3.86 billion in fiscal 2012. The consensus estimate had called for EPS of $3.25 on revenues of $4.28 billion.

Green Mountain reported that it sold 10.6 million Keurig systems during the fiscal year, up from 9.2 million in 2012. Sales of its single portion packs rose 18% for the full year and the only dim spot in the report was that other products and royalties revenues were down 12%. Gross margin rose from 32.9% in 2012 to 37.2% in 2013.

For the 2014 fiscal year Green Mountain expects sales growth in the high single digits with more of the growth coming in the second half of the year. Adjusted EPS is forecast at $3.75 to $3.85. The consensus estimates call for revenue of $4.69 billion and EPS of $3.78. The company's revenue estimate is lower than expected and that will hurt the share price when markets open on Thursday.

For the first quarter of its new fiscal year Green Mountain expects year-over-year sales growth in the low-to-mid single digits and adjusted EPS in a range of $0.85 to $0.90. The consensus estimates call for revenue of $1.44 billion and EPS of $0.96. Again the company's forecast is weaker than expected.

Last August, Green Mountain told investors that unlicensed products compatible with the company's Keurig system won't take more than 5% of sales this year and no more than 15% in two or three years. An independent scanner tracking company reported that 16% of the single-cup industry's sales are now made by unlicensed vendors. Green Mountain is forecasting more revenue from licensing next year, but that isn't going to be enough to overcome the lost sales, at least not if the revenue forecasts are accurate.

The company's shares are up about 2% in after-hours trading today, at $63.30 in a 52-week range of $27.54 to $89.66. Shares fell immediately after the earnings results were posted and have now swung back to a gain. The consensus target price for the shares was around $91.80 before today's report.

Obama threatens to veto bill to delay DOL fiduciary-duty rule

Bloomberg News

The House approved legislation Tuesday evening, 254-166, that would delay – or possibly kill – a Department of Labor regulation that would strengthen advice standards surrounding retirement plans.

The measure, written by Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Mo., would prohibit the DOL from proposing its regulation until 60 days after the Securities and Exchange Commission has finalized a similar rule to raise standards for brokers providing retail investment advice. It attracted the support of 30 Democrats.

On Monday, the Obama administration threatened to veto the legislation, saying that it undermines DOL efforts to protect workers and retirees from conflicted investment advice as they build their nest eggs through 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts.

Supporters of the bill say the SEC must go first to ensure coordination between the agencies and avoid duplicative costly fiduciary-duty requirements that would ultimately limit investment advice for smaller investors. Opponents say it would effectively kill the DOL rule if the SEC declines to propose its own regulation.

The legislation, which also would require the SEC to prove that investors are being harmed by the differing advice standards between investment advisers and brokers before it proceeds with its own rule, faces an uncertain future in the Democratic-led Senate.

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So far, no similar bill has been offered on that side of Capitol Hill. Ms. Wagner is hopeful that an Aug. 2 letter from 10 Democratic senators to DOL urging it to delay the rule signals that there is momentum for the issue on that side of Capitol Hill.

“We are working on some things behind the scenes with the Senate to move this through both chambers of Congress and to the president's desk,” Ms. Wagner said in an interview. “We're just in the middle of the game, and I want to see it all the way through.”

The Financial Planning Coalition – comprised of the Financial Planning Association, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors and the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. – is trying to stop Ms. Wagner's bill.

“This legislation is…a 'back door' attempt to undermine investor protection provisions in the Dodd-Frank Act and prevent the SEC and DOL from requiring advisers to put investors' interests ahead of their own,” the FPC said in a statement after the House vote.

Originally proposed in 2010 and withdrawn amid fierce financial industry backlash, the DOL rule is slated to be proposed again sometime in the next few months. It would expand the definition of “fiduciary” under federal retirement law.

Invest! ment advisers currently must act in the best interests of their clients, or meet a fiduciary duty, while brokers meet a less stringent suitability standard that allows them to sell higher-priced products to clients as long as they meet their investment needs.

During the House floor debate on Tuesday, Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., opposed the bill. She said that lawmakers should support the DOL rule because it would protect workers' retirement nest eggs from high fees that could come with some broker product recommendations.

“Whose side are we on?” said Ms. Waters, ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee. “Are we on the side of the brokers, who can say any old thing?”

Opponents of the DOL rule contend it would place a fiduciary duty for the first time on those providing advice to individual retirement account holders. They argue that would raise costs for brokers, potentially forcing them to abandon the market for investors with modest assets.

“All we're trying to do is preserve investment advice and investment opportunities for working Americans,” said Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

SUPERVALU INC. (SVU) Q2 Earnings Preview: Can Supervalu Post Sales Gains In Food?

Supervalu, Inc. (NYSE: SVU) is expected to release its second quarter financial results on Oct.17 and hold a conference call on the same day at 7:00 a.m. Central time.

Minnesota-based Supervalu is one of the largest grocery wholesalers and retailers in the U.S. with annual sales of about $17 billion. It has 3,420 stores composed of 1,900 independent stores serviced primarily by its food distribution business, 1,332 Save-A-Lot stores, of which 957 are operated by licensee owners, and 191 traditional retail grocery stores. The company has approximately 35,000 employees.

Wall Street expects Supervalu to earn 10 cents a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. In the same quarter last year, the company reported breakeven results.

In the past four quarters, Supervalu have missed the consensus view thrice, with only the last quarter beating the Street's estimates by a wide margin of 8 cents. Also, the consensus estimate has improved by 6 cents during the past three months, suggesting the Street's increased optimism on the company's prospects. In the last 30 days, three analysts raised their profit view.

Quarterly revenue, however, is expected to decline 51.8 percent to $3.88 billion from $8.04 billion a year-ago. This is one of the biggest sales drop for Supervalu, which sold Albertsons, Acme, Jewel-Osco, Shaw's and Star Market stores and related Osco and Sav-on in-store pharmacies to Cerebrus. Following the sale, the company has its food business and Save-A-Lot discount grocery chain.

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The primary risks to Supervalu are increasing price competition and rising food inflation. The pricing war got fierce in the industry, and Supervalu has been losing market share to lower-priced rivals such as Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) and Safeway Inc. (NYSE:SWY).

Moreover, the strategy of carrying more groceries by club stores like Costco Wholesal! e Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) and mass retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) hurt the prospects of Supervalu, whose pricing of certain products remains too high relative to competitors, resulting in lower customer traffic.

"We model Q2 EPS at $0.15, materially ahead of consensus at $0.09. This is despite being slightly below cons sales (by -1%) and gross margin (by -20bps). The reason is SG&A, where we continue expect benefits from a reduction in "stranded costs," UBS analyst Jason DeRise wrote in a note to clients.

Supervalu has been managing to post a profit from improved margins due to its recent cost cutting measures rather than topline growth. The company is benefiting from the savings coming out of the deal with Cerberus, and it is right sizing its overhead.

However, at some point, Supervalu will need to show progress on  revenue, which could be the focus point of the results as investors may want to know a time period when the company will post sales improvement in its food and Save-A-Lot business.

The company posted identical store sales of negative 3.0 percent for Retail Food and negative 1.9 percent for Save-A-Lot network in the first quarter. Identical store sales for corporately operated stores within the Save-A-Lot network were negative 1.2 percent.

On the positive side, there would be continued improvement in distribution gross profit against easy comparisons over the last two years.

For the first quarter, the company reported net earnings of $85 million or 34 cents a share, higher than $41 million or 19 cents a share in the prior-year quarter. Excluding items, adjusted earnings from continuing operations for the latest quarter was 14 cents a share. Total net sales for the quarter declined 1.5 percent to $5.16 billion.

Shares of SVU gained 5 percent since the last quarterly report and trade 12 times its forward earnings. In the past 52-weeks, they have traded between $1.82 and $8.48. Shares are likely to keep their value despite weak sale! s

"! We think the market may be willing to look through another weak revenue quarter for traditional food retail (UBSe -2% identical store sales growth) and Save-A-Lot (UBSe flat ID sales). The risk is if the market loses faith in the LT sales turnaround story," DeRise said.

Does This Company Still Have the Secret Sauce?

AFC Enterprises (NASDAQ: AFCE  ) , which owns the Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen quick- serve chain, once an undiscovered gem, has now soared 66% over the last year.

Love that chicken!
It's not surprising, as the National Chicken Council reports Americans are the most chicken-loving in the world, eating 83.6 pounds per capita annually -- and we love it best fried. 

AFC Enterprises has grown its Popeye's and Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen restaurants so now competes with the big boys like Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM  ) . Yum! Brands as a global chicken restaurant.

It doesn't hurt that CEO Cheryl Bachelder learned the trade as a former Yum! Brands executive. The company is mostly franchisee-run and utilizes many of the same tricks as Yum! Brands like special menu items. So far it's paid off as revenues have grown by 16.3% this last year.

The company's secret sauce is Cajun cooking and fried chicken and it has served AFC Enterprises well, returning 326.9% in share price appreciation since 2008.

On August 20, the company reported strong second-quarter results with an increase of 30% to diluted EPS from $0.27 to $0.35. It also grew free cash flow from $18.2 million in the year-ago period to $21.8 million and now boasts 13 straight quarters of positive comparable-same-store sales. The company also raised guidance to between 3.5% and 4.5% global same-store sales growth.

How high is up
This strength has also led the company to announce more store openings than previously planned. It now expects to debut between 170 and 195 locations in fiscal 2013 with 60 of them international, adding onto the current total of 2,153 restaurants.

The company has been remodeling its stores from Popeye's to Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen with close to 80% to be finished in 2014. In an interview on CNBC for Mad Money, CEO Cheryl Bachelder added those remodeled stores get an almost immediate 3%-to-4% rise in comps.

When asked about international growth, Bachelder answered,"How high is up?,"  speaking of the limitless possibilities overseas; Popeye's is located in 26 countries and 44 US states.

A chicken-wing upstart
But with success comes competition. McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) is debuting its own Mighty Wings nationally, chicken wings seasoned similarly to Popeye's New Orleans style with cayenne and chili pepper. The huge quantity of wings that McDonald's will need likely driving up prices from $1.44 a pound most recently will of course, affect the entire space including Yum! Brands, AFCE, and chicken focused Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD  )   

Burger Business, a trade publication, noted that McDonald's previous test of the wings in Atlanta (AFC Enterprises headquarters) was very popular with consumers and could provide stiff competition. Could McDonald's have AFCE in its sights with these New Orleans style offerings at its 14,000 US restaurants?

Sterne Agee analyst Lynn Collier told The Huffington Post keeping Mighty Wings on the menu beyond November would depend upon  chicken wings staying cheap as the company moves away from higher-priced beef  offerings.

McDonald's certainly needs something to bring up same-store sales. US same- store sales in July were up 1.6%, credited to its Monopoly promotion and breakfast menu. Last January, Jack Russo, analyst for Edward Jones, speculated the new wings could bring in dinner business for McDonald's,typically a weaker time of day accounting for 20% of sales, according to Bloomberg Business Week.

A food blogger for Serious Eats was seriously in love with the Mighty Wings and said they were "perhaps on par with what the big chicken shacks are cranking out." He noted it took 10 minutes for an order of 18 wings.

Many McDonald's orders are drive through, so there is merit when he wrote, "They need to speed up the process so I can be back home with the grub before kickoff." The nationwide roll-out on September 9 better show McDonald's more prepared than in test-market Atlanta.

Flour plus batter = profits
AFC Enterprises has a sweet operating margin of 28.7% and quarterly EPS growth (year-over-year) of 28.8%. But the run in share price is making it a little rich, with a price to sales of 5.1 and a trailing earnings multiple of 34x.

Meanwhile at McDonald's  the stock is virtually flat, up only 5% over the last year. Unsurprising when quarterly earnings growth is an anemic 3.7%. To be fair, McDonald's operating margin at 30.8% is higher than AFC Enterprises and the trailing earnings multiple lower at 17.3.

What must Yum! Brands think of these wings on its own turf? Yum! Brands offers wings not only at its KFC locations but also at Pizza Hut. Yum! Brands has 39,000 locations globally in 125 countries and over 80% of Yum! restaurants, including  Taco Bells, are franchised.

Yum! Brands reported a similar lackluster US sales rise of 1% in its July 10 earnings release. Yum! has now reported three consecutive disappointing quarters, taking the quarterly EPS growth rate down to -15.1% year-over-year.

Hoping to boost US sales, the company debuted a new menu item at Taco Bell, the fiery Doritos loco taco, and boneless wings at KFC.

Yum! Brands has a lower operating margin than these other two at 15.7% and a lower yield than McDonald's at 1.8%. 

Gentleman, to your fryers!
Will the Mighty Wings take share from both AFC Enterprises and Yum!? It just may but Popeye's customers are quite loyal and the restaurants offer Cajun style sides unavailable at these fast-food giants. AFC Enterprises has better growth prospects but a lot of that potential has been reflected in the share price. 

McDonald's may see rising comps from Mighty Wings and improve its dinner sales. For the income focused, it's dividend aristocrat title is attractive as well, and it is more conservatively valued that AFC Enterprises. 

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As for Yum! Brands, it could see the most market share taken away. I would be careful with any position in Yum!, especially if McDonald's drives up the wings' commodity costs and causes domestic weakness

But of course if you really want to get rich you need to think international, and that's where McDonald's and Yum! Brands have a leg up. That's one reason we named them as winners in The Motley Fool's free report "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World". Click here to get your free copy and uncover the third company before it's gone.

 

How to analyse key financial statements of a company

In this article, we shall go through the key constituents of the financial statements - profit and loss account, balance sheet and cash flow statement.

Key financial statements

Profit & Loss account: The profit and loss account (P&L) shows a company's performance over a specific time frame, usually a financial year or a period of 12 months. In India, most companies follow an April to March financial year (for example - 1st April 2011 to 31st March 2012 will be one financial year). The P&L account is also known as the income statement. It presents information relating to a company's revenues, manufacturing costs, sales and general expenses, interest and depreciation charges, tax costs, other income, net profits, and dividends, amongst others.

A typical P&L statement is as hereunder:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sourced from Britannia Industries' FY11 annual report

The balance sheet: The balance sheet gives a snapshot of a company's financial strength. The statement shows what a company owns or controls (assets) and what it owes (liabilities plus equity). In accounting terminology, the balance sheet is broken into two parts - 'Sources of funds' and 'Application of funds'. 'Sources of funds' indicate the total value of financing that a company has done, while 'Application of funds' indicates the areas the company has utilised these funds.

As such, sources of funds = application of funds.

Put in other words, assets = liabilities + equity.

As you would be aware, every company has limited resources. What differentiates a good company from an average one is the way in which it utilises such resources.

A typical balance sheet statement is displayed below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sourced from Britannia Industries' FY11 annual report

Total Assets	Rs m	Total Liabilities	Rs m
Net fixed assets	3,154	Current liabilities	5,969
Investments	5,450	Shareholders' funds	4,513
Current assets	6,254	Loan funds	4,314
		Deferred tax liability (net)	62
Total	14,858	Total	14,858

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash flow statement:

Put in simple terms, a cash flow statement shows the amount of cash and cash equivalents that enter and leave a company. Just as the P&L statement, the cash flow statement shows cash transactions during a particular time frame.

A company can generate or lose cash through its core operations. Further, it can raise or payback cash through financing activities. In addition, it can use cash for investing in assets or receive cash through sales of assets or through dividends. Being the various aspects of any business, these above-mentioned activities cover most of the integral cash transactions of a company. As such, the cash flow statement allows investors to understand how a particular company's business is running, how it has raised capital and how the same is being utilised.

A cash flow statement is typically broken into three broader parts:

Cash (used in)/ generated from operations Net cash used in investing activities Net cash from financing activities An example of a cash flow statement is displayed below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sourced from Britannia Industries' FY11 annual report

In the next article of this series, we shall start our detailed discussion on the P&L statement and its key constituents.

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Deadline.com and founder Finke part ways after …

Nikki Finke, founder of Deadline.com, severed ties with the entertainment industry news site after repeated clashes with its current owner.

"Despite attempts by all to have it go otherwise, Nikki Finke will no longer be leading Deadline Hollywood, and she will not be writing weekend box office or filing stories going forward. This is an emotional and painful parting of the ways for us," according to a story posted on Deadline.com, which has become a must-read site for entertainment industry executives since it was founded in 2006. "Businesses evolve and change, and we've learned that no one is indispensable."

The story, co-written by senior editors Mike Fleming Jr. and Nellie Andreeva, said the site will "imminently" hire staffers. "Though we will never completely replace Nikki's unique voice, we will continue ahead, charging hard, breaking every story possible," they wrote.

Finke's dispute with Jay Penske, who bought Deadline in 2009, has been brewing for several months. Last year, Penske's company, Penske Media Corp., bought entertainment industry trade publication Variety and poured more resources to the newly acquired operation. Finke wanted a role in running Variety, but Penske reportedly denied her overture.

She subsequently sought to buy back Deadline and be let out of her contract that ran through 2016, according to The Wall Street Journal in September.

The dispute escalated in recent weeks as Finke openly wrote about her displeasure with her employer through her Twitter account and the stories she posted on Deadline. She complained of being locked out of the site, which prompted a denial story from Fleming in October. "For the past few months, she has unfortunately turned an internal matter, her dissatisfaction, into a public spectacle," Fleming wrote.

Finke, who's built a reputation in Hollywood for her tough-as-nails dealings with sources and studio executives, told the Los Angeles Times Tuesday that she was "happy" with the outcome. In walking away from the! contract, she left "money on the table," she told the paper.

She plans to start a new website that will compete with Deadline, Variety and other entertainment industry publications, the report said.

Dominion Completes Coal-to-Biomass Plant Conversion

Dominion's (NYSE: D  ) newly converted coal-to-biomass plant is officially operational, according to a press release issued today.

The utility's Dominion Virginia Power subsidiary brought the unit online last Friday, the first of three facilities to clean out coal consumption in favor of biomass.

"Today marks another achievement guided by Dominion's philosophy that balanced fuel diversity – from coal to natural gas to nuclear to renewables – leads to reasonable rates that best serve the needs and interests of customers and shareholders," said Dominion Generation CEO David Christian in a statement.

Click here for a video of Virgina's Secretary of Natural Resources' visit to the newly converted power station.

The utility had previously announced its intentions around two years ago of spending $165 million to convert the three plants. Total generation will clock in at 153 megawatts, and the other two units are on schedule for full conversion by 2014.

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According to Dominion, the new plants will lower greenhouse gas and particulate-matter emissions, as well as put Dominion closer to reaching Virginia's voluntary 15% renewable energy goal by 2025.

Emerging Markets Guru Mark Mobius - Georgia on My Mind

My team and I recently traveled to Georgia, a small country in the Caucasus Mountains straddling the border between Europe and Asia. Why are we interested in Georgia? One word: reform. Georgia, which can be considered a frontier market, is on the cusp of burgeoning change.

Georgia gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, is strategically located east of the Black Sea, and is bordered by Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey. To understand what is happening in Georgia today, we need to go back in history. Not only has Georgia been the victim of many invasions, but the importance of Russia in its history cannot be underestimated. Russian dictator Joseph Stalin, who led the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) from the mid-1920s until his death in 1953, was Georgian.Georgia controls much of the Caucasus Mountains and the routes through them, giving it strategic importance in the region. Construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (South Caucasus) gas pipeline, and the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku Railway is part of a strategy to capitalize on Georgia’s key location between Europe and Asia, and help develop its role as a transit point for gas, oil and other goods.Our team’s entry point into the country was the beautiful resort town of Batumi on the Black Sea coast. It was immediately evident that Georgia was embracing change and making a statement of progress through its architecture. As we landed, the airport navigation tower at Batumi looked like a jewel at night with hundreds of lights surrounding the tower and the adjacent circular building. The Sarpi Customs Terminal Building, designed by German architect Jürgen Mayer-Hermann, is an incredible shape formed into a series of curves and abutments. As we drove through the city, I was struck by the sight of the most modern McDonald’s restaurant in the world I’ve ever seen. It looked lik! e a rocket ready to take off. The old part of the city has been beautifully restored, featuring a variety of architectural styles from empire and art deco to the traditional Georgian structures topped with unusual steeples. Traveling around the country, I was awestruck by the interesting new architecture, as well as the extensive renovation of older structures taking place. Growth and ChangeSince the “Revolution of the Roses” or “Rose Revolution” in 2003 that marked a shift in political power and the end of the era of Soviet leadership, Georgia has undertaken dramatic reforms. While it suffered market setbacks in 2008–2009, Georgia has seen strong annual GDP growth rates of 6% to 7% from 2010–2012.1 Georgia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is a modest 36.30%2and inflation appears contained. Growth drivers for the economy include tourism and agriculture, in addition to substantial overseas workers’ remittances that have helped drive an increase in foreign reserves.What really drew me and my team to Georgia was its recent transformation toward a modern and fair society, one where the government appears to be treating its citizens properly. The most impressive thing I learned from talking to people living in Georgia was how much the old ways had been discarded and how the government had become more efficient. The World Bank’s “Ease of Doing Business” survey ranked Georgia 8th out of 189 countries in 2013, a dramatic move up from its ranking of 133 in 2005.3Georgia’s Public Service Administrative Building, which handles land registration and passport issues under one roof, is a showcase of transparent and modern public administration in the country. In general, I found Georgia’s infrastructure truly impressive.  I was also impressed by what appeared to be a dramatic reduction of corruption in Georgia. In fact, one of the key questions I ask any government leader I have the opportunity to meet with is: What specifi! c reforms! are you undertaking to reduce corruption? I also want to know what plans are in place to grow the economy and reduce taxation, while making government more efficient. Our team had the pleasure of meeting with Bidzina Ivanishvili, who was Georgia’s Prime Minister at the time, to discuss our concerns and talk about opportunities in the country.In 2013, the Heritage Foundation’s Economic Freedom Index, which measures the economic freedom of countries based on trade freedom, business freedom, investment freedom, and property rights, ranked Georgia 21 out of 161 countries.4 Starting a business is relatively easy in Georgia, with registration possible in one day. Foreigners do not require special work permits, and nationals from more than 80 countries can enter Georgia and stay for 360 days without a visa. In addition, the tax structure in Georgia is relatively simple and attractive to investors.As in any country, there are revisionists in Georgia who want to go back to the old ways. Also, like other countries, there still is corruption, although it has been dramatically reduced. These are problems we should be aware of, and we must watch Georgia’s relations with Russia to ensure they remain on an even keel. Of course, investing in any frontier market— generally considered the smaller, less-developed subset of emerging markets—carries heightened risks, including potential price volatility, market illiquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets.As Templeton seeks potential investment opportunities around the globe, the thing we look for first and foremost is growth potential. Economic growth can act as a driver of company growth and potential profitability of a company, and that is something we want to see. We look for well-managed companies that we think are capable of taking advantage of a country’s economic growth. We also aim to visit as many companies as we can and meet the management.&nb! sp;Then w! e like to talk to the companies’ customers and competitors. Lastly, we speak with government officials who are involved in regulating and monitoring the businesses in which we may invest.We are confident that many of the objectives toward modernization and liberalism will be accomplished in Georgia, and that has driven our search for investment opportunities there. My team and I greatly enjoyed our visit, and hope to be back!

 

About the author:

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http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/

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Dow Poised to Deliver Early Gains

LONDON -- Stock index futures at 7 a.m. EDT indicate that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) may open up by 0.3% this morning, while the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) may also open 0.3% higher.

European markets moved higher this morning, with banks and natural-resources firms among the gainers. European carmakers such as Volkswagen and Peugeot also rose following a report showing that new-car sales in the eurozone rose in April for the first time since September 2011. Surprisingly, one of the top three gainers was Spain, where new-car sales rose by 10.8% in April compared with the same period last year.

Today's U.S. economic reports include the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 9:55 a.m. EDT; consensus forecasts indicate that the index may have risen to 77.5 in May from 76.4 in April. At 10 a.m. EDT, April's leading-indicators report is expected to show a 0.3% increase following the 0.1% fall seen in March.

Best Safest Companies To Buy Right Now

Today's corporate earnings reports include Stage Stores (NYSE: SSI  ) , which reported a 3.5% increase in quarterly sales to $379 million and an increase in comparable-store sales of 0.7%. However, the firm reported an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share for the quarter compared with an adjusted loss of $0.05 per share for the same period last year. Donaldson is also scheduled to report before the opening bell and is expected to report earnings of $0.48 on revenue of $658 million, according to a FactSet survey.

In other corporate news, Aruba Networks is down by 21% in premarket trading after it missed its third-quarter earnings forecast and reported a loss of $20.2 million for the quarter ended April 30. Although Aruba reported a 12% increase in revenue, it was sapped to an overall loss for the quarter by higher taxes and increased input costs and operating expenses. JC Penney is 1.3% lower in premarket trading after it reported a quarterly loss of $1.58 per share last night, more than double the $0.75 per-share loss reported for the same period last year. Dell's profit also came in below expectations yesterday: The PC maker reported first-quarter adjusted profit of $0.21 per share, down from $0.43 for the same period last year and missing consensus forecasts of $0.35 per share.

Finally, let's not forget that the Dow's daily movements can add up to some serious long-term gains. Indeed, Warren Buffett recently wrote, "The Dow advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions." If you, like Buffett, are convinced about the long-term power of the Dow, you should read "5 Stocks To Retire On." Your long-term wealth could be transformed, even in this uncertain economy. Simply click here now to download this free, no-obligation report.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now

The U.S. Department of Defense wrapped up the workweek Friday with the announcement of nine new contracts, worth more than $791 million in total. One single contract, however, accounted for fully 62% of the funds on offer.

The winners of that contract, a $494 million firm-fixed-price, multiple-award, task-order contract for the supply of hardware, software, and related integration services needed for the U.S. Army's "Information Technology Enterprise Solution-2" (ITES-2S) enterprise business systems project, include:

Dell's (NASDAQ: DELL  ) Federal Systems business International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM  ) And four privately owned companies -- Unicom Government, CDW Government, Iron Bow Technologies, and World Wide Technology.

The specific type of contract being awarded is best described as an "umbrella" contract, setting a maximum amount of funds that can be spent (the $494 million). Dell, IBM, and the other contract winners will now need to bid against each other to sell the Army equipment and software in response to specific task orders, up until said ceiling value has been reached.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now: Garmin Ltd.(GRMN)

Garmin Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets global positioning system (GPS) enabled products and other navigation, communication, and information products for the automotive/mobile, outdoor, fitness, marine, and general aviation markets worldwide. The company offers a range of automotive navigation products, and various products and applications designed for the mobile GPS market; GPS enabled handheld products for hunters, hikers, geocachers, outdoors enthusiasts, cyclists, and golfers; dog tracking systems; tracker systems; and training assistants for athletes. It also provides handhelds, network products and multifunction displays, fixed-mount GPS/chartplotter products, instruments, fish finders, radars, autopilots, VHF radios, marine networking products, and sounder products. In addition, the company offers GPS-enabled navigation, VHF communications transmitters/receivers, multi-function displays, electronic flight instrumen tation systems, automatic flight control systems, traffic advisory systems and traffic collision avoidance systems, terrain awareness and warning systems, instrument landing system receivers, surveillance products, audio panels, and cockpit datalink systems. The company?s sells its products through a network of independent dealers and distributors, as well as through original equipment manufacturers. Garmin Ltd. was founded in 1990 and is based in Schaffhausen, Switzerland.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Sean Williams]

  Stateside, Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN  ) is seeing many of the issues I project AutoNavi will soon encounter. With mobile coverage spreading into many rural areas, many smartphones and tablets are now able to deliver the same navigation quality and features that Garmin's and AutoNavi's products bring to the table. Understandably, China's wireless infrastructure isn't as developed as what we have here in the U.S., so the lifespan of AutoNavi's products will be extended compared to Garmin, which has been on a multiyear downswing. Ultimately, though, the same product replacement cycle is going to hit AutoNavi when China's wireless infrastructure improves, and will slowly erode its business.

• [By Eric Volkman]

  Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN  ) has chosen a fixed spot on its map and pinned four dividend payments to it. In accordance with Swiss corporate law, the company's shareholders have approved a full year of quarterly distributions. Each will total $0.45 per share. The first will be paid on June 28 to shareholders of record as of June 18. The payment and record dates for the following three disbursements are Sept. 30 and Sept. 16, Dec. 31 and Dec. 16, and March 31 and March 17, 2014, respectively.

• [By Laura Brodbeck]

  Wednesday

  Earnings Expected From: Marriott International (NYSE: MAR), MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET), Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB), Garmin Ltd (NASDAQ: GRMN), Ryland Group, Inc. (NYSE: RYL) Economic Releases Expected: British consumer confidence, New Zealand Interest rate decision, US FOMC meeting announcement, German CPI, US GPD, US core CPI, US nonfarm employment change

  Thursday

5 Best Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now: Portugal Telecom SGPS S.A .(PT)

Portugal Telecom, SGPS, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Portugal, Brazil, sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. It offers fixed line telephone, Internet protocol television, and direct-to-home satellite pay-TV services; and mobile telecommunications services, such as voice, data, and Internet-related multi-media services primarily for mobile phones, smart phones, tablets, and laptops. The company also provides enterprise services, including data and business solutions, as well as information technology/information system and business process outsourcing services. In addition, it provides engineering solutions and training services in telecommunications; postal network services; consultant negotiation services; public telecommunication services and telebroadcasting services; call center services; mobile cellular services; and development and consultancy services in the areas of electronic commerce, contents, telecommunications, and info rmation technology. Further, it engages in the purchase, management, administration, sale, and investment consultancy of real estate properties; business advisory board service installment, consultation, administration, and business management; and pension fund management,. Additionally, the company provides wholesale services comprising leased lines, interconnection, unbundled access to its local loops, broadband asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL), wholesale line rental, access to ducts, transmission of television and radio signals, and international carrier services. The company also publishes directories; provides portal services; and sells telecommunications equipment. As of December 31, 2010, it had approximately 4.9 million telephone and ADSL access lines in service. The company was formerly known as Portugal Telecom, SA and changed its name to Portugal Telecom, SGPS, S.A. in December 2000. Portugal Telecom, SGPS, S.A. was founded in 1994 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Brian Pacampara]

  Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, telecommunications company Portugal Telecom (NYSE: PT  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

10 Best Canadian Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Orbit International Corporation(ORBT)

Orbit International Corp., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of electronic components and subsystems, and commercial and custom power units. The company operates through two segments, Electronics and Power. The Electronics segment designs, manufactures, and sells customized panels, components, and subsystems for contract program requirements to prime contractors, governmental procurement agencies, and research and development laboratories. Its products include remote control units; intercommunication panels; displays; keyboards, keypads, and pointing devices; operator control trays; command display units; gun computer system cabinets; gun mount control panels; serial data converters; harness assemblies; and system integration products. This segment?s products are deployed in surveillance aircraft, shipboard programs, and land-based guidance control programs. This segment also performs the analysis and evaluation of caliber naval gun we apon systems performance; involves in the design, integration, and production of components for caliber naval gun weapon systems; and offers engineering supplies and services in support of caliber naval gun weapon systems initiatives. The Power segment designs, manufactures, and sells power supplies, AC power sources, frequency converters, uninterruptible power supplies, and associated analytical equipment and other electronic equipment, as well as commercial-off-the-shelf power modules. This segment?s products are used in production lines, engineering labs, oil and gas exploration, aircraft and ships, and related ground support systems. The company markets its products primarily through its direct sales personnel, as well as through manufacturer's representatives and distributors. The company was formerly known as Orbit Instrument Corp. and changed its name to Orbit International Corp. in July 1991. Orbit International Corp. was founded in 1957 and is based in Hauppauge, N ew York.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now: Cell Therapeutics Inc (CTIC)

Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI), incorporated in 1991, develops, acquires and commercializes treatments for cancer. The Company�� research, development, acquisition and in-licensing activities concentrate on identifying and developing new ways to treat cancer. As of December 31, 2011, CTI focused its efforts on Pixuvri (pixantrone dimaleate) (Pixuvri), OPAXIO (paclitaxel poliglumex) (OPAXIO), tosedostat, brostallicin and bisplatinates. As of December 31, 2011, it developed Pixuvri, an anthracycline derivative for the treatment of hematologic malignancies and solid tumors. Another late-stage drug candidate of the Company, OPAXIO, is being studied as a potential maintenance therapy for women with advanced stage ovarian cancer, who achieve a complete remission following first-line therapy with paclitaxel and carboplatin. As of December 31, 2011, it also developed tosedostat in collaboration with Chroma Therapeutics, Ltd. (Chroma). On May 31, 2012, CTI completed its acquisition gaining worldwide rights to S*BIO Pte Ltd.'s (S*BIO) pacritinib.

Pixuvri

As of December 31, 2011, the Company developed Pixuvri, an aza-anthracenedione derivative, for the treatment of non-Hodgkin�� lymphoma (NHL), and various other hematologic malignancies, and solid tumors. Pixuvri was studied in the Company�� EXTEND, or PIX301, clinical trial, which was a phase III single-agent trial of Pixuvri for patients with relapsed, refractory aggressive NHL who received two or more prior therapies and who were sensitive to treatment with anthracyclines. On September 28, 2011, CTI announced that a second independent radiology assessment of response and progression endpoint data from its PIX301 clinical trial of Pixuvri was achieved with statistical significance. The results of the EXTEND trial met its primary endpoint and showed that patients randomized to treatment with Pixuvri achieved a significantly higher rate of confirmed and unconfirmed complete response compared to patients treated with standard chem! otherapy had a significantly increased overall response rate and experienced a statistically significant improvement in median progression free survival. Pixuvri had predictable and manageable toxicities when administered at the proposed dose and schedule in the EXTEND clinical trial in heavily pre-treated patients. In March 2011, the Company initiated the PIX-R trial to study Pixuvri in combination with rituximab in patients with relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Pixuvri has also been studied in patients with HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer who have tumor progression after at least two, but not more than three, prior chemotherapy regimens. In the second quarter of 2010, the NCCTG opened this phase II study for enrollment. The study is closed to accrual and results are expected to be reported by the NCCTG later in 2012.

OPAXIO

OPAXIO is the Company�� biologically-enhanced chemotherapeutic agent that links paclitaxel to a biodegradable polyglutamate polymer, resulting in a new chemical entity. As of December 31, 2011, the Company focused its development of OPAXIO on ovarian, brain, esophageal, head and neck cancer. OPAXIO was designed to improve the delivery of paclitaxel to tumor tissue while protecting normal tissue from toxic side effects. In November 2010, results were presented by the Brown University Oncology Group from a phase II trial of OPAXIO combined with temozolomide (TMZ), and radiotherapy in patients with newly-diagnosed, high-grade gliomas, a type of brain cancer. The trial demonstrated a high rate of complete and partial responses and a high rate of six month progression free survival (PFS). Based on these results, the Brown University Oncology Group has initiated a randomized, multicenter, phase II study of OPAXIO and standard radiotherapy versus TMZ and radiotherapy for newly diagnosed patients with glioblastoma with an active gene termed MGMT that reduces responsiveness to TMZ. A phase I/II study of OPAXIO combined with radi! otherapy ! and cisplatin was initiated by SUNY Upstate Medical University, in patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer.

Tosedostat

In March 2011, the Company entered into a co-development and license agreement with Chroma Therapeutics, Ltd. (Chroma), providing the Company with marketing and co-development rights to Chroma�� drug candidate, tosedostat, in North, Central and South America. Tosedostat is an oral, aminopeptidase inhibitor that has demonstrated anti-tumor responses in blood related cancers and solid tumors in phase I-II clinical trials. Interim results from the phase II OPAL study of tosedostat in elderly patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) showed that once-daily, oral doses of tosedostat had predictable and manageable toxicities and results demonstrated response rates, including a high-response rate among patients who received prior hypomethylating agents, which are used to treat myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), a precursor of AML.

Brostallicin

As of December 31, 2011, the Company developed brostallicin through its wholly owned subsidiary, Systems Medicine LLC, which holds rights to use, develop, import and export brostallicin. Brostallicin is a synthetic deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) minor groove binding agent that has demonstrated anti-tumor activity and a favorable safety profile in clinical trials, in which more than 230 patients have been treated as of December 31, 2011. The Company uses a genomic-based platform to guide the development of brostallicin. A phase II study of brostallicin in relapsed, refractory soft tissue sarcoma met its predefined activity and safety hurdles and resulted in a first-line phase II clinical trial study that was conducted by the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC).

The Company competes with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Roche Group, Genentech, Inc., Astellas Pharma, Eli Lilly and Company, Celgene, Telik, I! nc., TEVA! Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. and PharmaMar.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Nathalie Tadena]

  Among the companies with shares expected to actively trade in Friday’s session are Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.(VNDA), Kimberly-Clark(KMB) and Cell Therapeutics(CTIC).

• [By John Udovich]

  Large and small cap cancer stocks Gilead Sciences, Inc (NASDAQ: GILD), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Veracyte (NASDAQ: VCYT), Genomic Health, Inc (NASDAQ: GHDX), Cell Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: CTIC) and MetaStat Inc (OTCMKTS: MTST) have all been producing a steady stream of news lately for biotech investors looking for a way to cash in on the growth in development of�cancer treatments. Just consider the following news:

• [By Bryan Murphy]

  If you're reading this, then odds are you already know that the last two weeks (not even a full two weeks) have been more fruitful for Cell Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:CTIC) shareholders than the prior two years have been - the stock's up 28% since last Thursday. And, odds are you already know why. The question most of you are asking now is, can CTIC actually keep climbing at this pace, or even keep climbing at any pace? The answer is "yes", though floating that answer almost inherently requires a deeper explanation.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now: Tucows Inc Com Npv (TC.TO)

Tucows Inc. distributes Internet services worldwide. The company offers domain name registration, and security and identity products through digital certificates, email, and mobile telephony services. It provides OpenSRS, a wholesale service, which manages domain names, mailboxes, and digital certificates through a network of approximately 11,000 Web hosts, Internet service providers (ISPs), and other resellers; Platypus, a billing service that provides ISPs with an industry-specific solution for billing, service provisioning, and customer account management; and Hover, a retail service, which offers domain names, mailboxes, and digital certificates management services for consumers and small businesses. In addition, the company offers YummyNames that manages various domain names with a portfolio of approximately 42,000 domains; and Butterscotch, a content service, which operates butterscotch.com and tucows.com advertising-supported Websites that provide content in the for m of approximately 4,000 videos and 385,000 software and mobile listings, and articles. The company was formerly known as Infonautics, Inc. and changed its name to Tucows Inc. in August 2001. Tucows Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Bitcoin, Gold, And Silver Bubbles Go Bust -- Are Treasuries And Stocks Next?

Bitcoin investors have had a rough time lately. The digital currency dropped more than 35% in five days, and more than 50% from its all-time high two weeks ago.

Precious metals investors (on the long side of the market) suffered a similar fate, though the drop in gold and silver was modest.  iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) was down near 1.6% in the last five days, while SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) was down 1.7% near an 18-month low.

Major Precious Metals ETF Performance On Friday

ETF	5-day Performance (%)
SPDR Gold Shares	-1.70
iShares Silver Trust	-1.60

Investors concerned about the effects of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been amassing Bitcoin and precious metals— seeing the two investment vehicles as alternatives to traditional currencies, which are undermined by monetary easing.

So far, however, these policies have blown all sorts of bubbles — like the Bitcoins and the precious metals that went bust — as investor sentiment shifted from greed to fear.

5 Best Stocks To Own Right Now

That's certainly old news. The new question is which bubble is next next to burst?

It is hard to say, as liquidity around the world continues to provide cheap money to risk-takers, especially after the launching of Japan's ambitious plan to reflate its economy.  Nevertheless, investors should keep an eye on the US Treasury market, as the Fed is getting ready to taper, and high dividend stocks. Rising Treasury yields or a big earnings disappointment could ignite a massive exit across the board, bursting the dividend trade bubble.

This was the case with shipping companies a few years ago. Frontline's stock, for instance, descended from $70 down to $ 2.05, once the company could no longer produce the earnings to support its hefty dividend.

For the rest of the equity markets, the bubble may get bigger before it goes bust, as we wrote in a previous piece, due to the fear of missing out on potential gains. That's an "emotional button" which is usually turned on in bull markets, as investors score a string of quick gains — turning the bull market into a bubble.

While a quick gain evokes excitement, a string of quick gains turns excitement into euphoria, which feeds into greed. That can become contagious with human interactions, as investors race to copy each others' behavior.

That may prove to be the case again, in early 2014.

Investing in the Next Generation of Video Game Consoles

The launches of Microsoft's Xbox One and Sony's PlayStation 4 have started another generation of the battle for sales of video game consoles and, by extension, the battle for your living room. It's a big industry, but it's impossible to predict from a console's launch how successful it will be. That uncertainty can scare off investors, but there are ways to invest in the latest console boom without trying to pick a winner.

Making the systems
To sell millions upon millions of consoles, a lot of things need to happen. First, they need to be made and two companies are heavily involved.

The first, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD  ) makes the processors for both Sony and Microsoft's offerings, so whether it's a PlayStation or an Xbox under the Christmas tree, there is an AMD processor at its core. Whether both consoles continue to compete for market share with relative parity or one dominates the other, AMD wins.

AMD's primary business is in making processors for computers and between that and their sudden domination of the console market, they are extremely well positioned for a turnaround. Analysts are predicting a return to profitability, and a big gain from the console ramp-up could easily make this the turnaround story of 2014. Stiff competition from Intel on the PC side of things has given them some lean years, but with over $1 billion in cash on hand, there's every reason to bet on this success.

But all those AMD chips and high-end components don't just put themselves together, and that's where Foxconn comes in. The consumate Chinese manufacturer of other peoples' gadgets is involved in the manufacture of both consoles, and that's a nice position to be in. I'm not a huge fan of Foxconn's incredibly low profit margin business style, but there's no denying they're good at what they do.

Games
Out of the box neither an Xbox One or a PlayStation 4 can do much. These are video game systems, and they need games to be worthwhile. While both Sony and Microsoft do make some of their own games, the lion's share of the game market is third-party developers.

While some of the software companies, like Japan-centric Konami and Square clearly would benefit more from PlayStation 4 becoming the worldwide standard, most of the major software players will take advantage of the internal similarities of the two systems, and release their games for both.

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: EA  ) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO  ) are both going to benefit, as their respective sports and action games get reboots on new systems.

The benefit is not just novelty, it's price. The last couple of years of this generation, and indeed any generation, the "new" games fall out of favor quickly and end up in bargain bins well below launch price just a few months out of the gate. On the new systems, there is no competition from used games yet, and the prices will stay higher for longer, helping margins. Higher production costs will offset this somewhat, however.

While earnings will be improved for both in the near term, that makes me nervous and I'm not sure either is a buy at current levels. By contrast, Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI  ) sports much better margins, a much higher current ratio (over 5 versus over 1 for the others), and even a small dividend.

Activision isn't as pure a play on the consoles, with its Blizzard division almost exclusively focused on PC gaming, but Blizzard's knack for long-term successful titles will provide the Activision division with a cash-flow cushion that will allow them to take risks the others may not be able to afford. In the last generation that meant some huge hits, and there's no reason to doubt that again this time.

Buying it all
One last play, lost in all of this, is the retail play. Lots of places sell games, from Wal-Mart to Amazon, but the pure play is what it's been for years, GameStop (NYSE: GME  ) , and its worth considering.

People have been predicting the death of GameStop and the rise of digital distribution for years. Buying games on the console and downloading them is an option for some of us, but while broadband is more and more common nationwide, the high speeds needed to download huge, Blu-Ray-sized games are still comparatively expensive and uncommon. Even where they do exist, download caps at Internet providers mean dedicating tens of gigabytes of bandwidth to downloading a single game is not an option for many.

GameStop still has a valuable niche in gaming retail, and there's a lot to like about the cash-rich, debt-free company, with its consistent earnings and its sub-1 PEG ratio.

With everybody predicting a big win for either Sony or Microsoft, there's a lot of temptation to think you have to gamble on one or the other to play the game market. But whether you're into the hardware side with AMD, the software side with Activision, or the retail aspect with GameStop, some of the most compelling plays in the sector don't depend on either side winning outright.

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Penney's Wins Battle, Loses Martha Stewart War

It's something of a Pyrrhic victory for J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP  ) . The department store chain gets to sell the products designed by Martha Stewart that Macy's (NYSE: M  ) had been trying to block, but in no way, shape, or form can it associate those wares with the domestic diva. Penney's plans to market the goods under its JCP Everyday line beginning on Mother's Day -- but in the end, why bother?

As part of ousted CEO Ron Johnson's plan to revitalize Penney's, the once-venerable department store acquired a 17% stake in Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (NYSE: MSO  ) back in 2011 for $38.5 million, with an eye toward bolstering its cachet. There were airy plans to introduce mini-stores with trained personnel giving out tips and advice. It was likened at the time to Apple Genius Bars, but I guess employees would be decked out in aprons and dishing out domestic pointers.

Macy's, however, which had been selling Stewart's branded products for several years after wooing her away from Sears Holdings' Kmart, objected since its agreement with her was exclusive. It contends it invested a lot of time, energy, and money in rebuilding her brand after she got sprung from jail in 2005 and that Penney's is trying to capitalize on it.

Macy's initially took Stewart to court, but then sued the department store chain too. It's been trying to halt the sale of the JCP Everyday items, but a judge last week wouldn't go along with that line of reasoning, though he held open the possibility of forcing Penney's to remove all items from its shelves if it could be proven Macy's is harmed.

Top 10 Insurance Companies To Watch In Right Now

In yesterday's decision, the court held that Penney's can sell the Martha Stewart products, only as long as "they do not promote, advertise, display or associate, directly or indirectly, said goods with the name Martha Stewart in any way or fashion."

So as I said, what's the point? Penney's gets nothing out of the deal, really, other than products the likes of which it was already selling. Customers don't know they're buying Martha Stewart gear, so there's no benefit to be gained from the partnership, yet they're undoubtedly still on the hook for the $200 million or so the domestic goddess expected to reap from royalty payments, design fees, and advertising commitments that were part of the original agreement (though one can imagine the last item won't be needed).

J.C. Penney is floundering badly, still trying to pick up the pieces of a changed sales strategy that caused shoppers to flee to, among all places, Macy's -- among others. So it may have won the battle, but ultimately it's still losing the war.

J.C. Penney's stock cratered under Ron Johnson's leadership, but could new CEO Mike Ullman present the opportunity investors have been waiting for? If you're wondering whether J.C. Penney is a buy today, you're invited to claim a copy of The Motley Fool's must-read report on the company. Learn everything you need to know about JCP's turnaround -- or lack thereof. Simply click here now for instant access.

Fuel efficiency hits new highs, government says

The Toyota Prius was one of the most efficient model year 2012 cars, according to an EPA report.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Carmakers keep making more and more efficient vehicles, the government said in a Thursday report.

The Environmental Protection Agency announced the average fuel efficiency of model year 2012 vehicles increased about a gallon over 2011, to 23.6 miles per gallon. The agency also said average carbon dioxide emissions decreased.

But 2013 vehicles will post a smaller 0.4 mpg fuel efficiency increase, it projected.

Auto manufacturers and some environmentalists agreed the report showcases progress towards heightened efficiency standards that take effect in the next several years.

Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, standards will rise to 35.5 mpg in 2016 and 54.5 mpg in 2024. Just under one third of 2013 vehicles meet the 2016 standards. The only vehicles that currently meet the 2024 levels are hybrid and electric vehicles, the EPA said.

But the agency noted that 2024 is over a decade away and "there's considerable time for continued improvements in gasoline vehicle technology."

The standards do not apply to each model, but rather they are the average fuel economy of all cars an automaker sells.

Best Safest Companies To Buy Right Now

Most new autos currently parked at dealerships are model year 2014.

  Mercedes B-Class: Roomy, peppy, sporty

Don Anair, a researcher at the Union of Concerned Scientists, noted that technolog! y advances that drove the efficiency increase means auto shoppers have "far more options," including more efficient gas-powered autos, plus hybrids and fully electric vehicles.

The growing number of fuel efficient options is creating a competitive environment in the sector, said GM spokesman Greg Martin. That competition is fueling an "arms race under the hood."

Wade Newton, a spokesman at the Auto Alliance, an industry group, said vehicles are also becoming more efficient thanks to lighter materials and more aerodynamic designs.

Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ:BRCM): Solid Core Biz, LTE Progress Could Aid 2014 Results

Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ:BRCM) is undervalued given its solid core business and the optionality in Mobile. The company's platform-driven approach in Broadband/Networking and its initial LTE traction puts the semiconductor firm in good shape for 2014.

The company continues to target growth in excess of its peers by leveraging its leading position with tier-1 customers and complete platform solutions in its Broadband and Networking Infrastructure segment.

Broadcom's strategy in Wireless is to apply its platform-driven approach to the Connectivity and Baseband end-markets. The company believes this enable higher Broadcom content per box and offer integrated turn-key solutions to a broader set of customers, including tier-2/3 OEMs in emerging countries.

[Related -Is Intel (INTC) About To Buy One Of These Companies?]

Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore believes this approach is necessary for scale reasons as well as to defend/strengthen the company's leading Connectivity share by allowing it to compete on complete platform solutions.

On the LTE front, the company believes its early launch of 5G WiFi (802.11ac) enabled 75 percent attach rates in LTE phones, as tier-1 OEM's that demand superior performance (2x throughput), power efficiency (35 percent lower), die size (35 percent smaller) and bill of materials cost (25 percent lower) chose Broadcom over competing solutions.

Broadcom's view is that the combo chip and baseband should remain on separate silicon as the technology cadence for these devices are inherently different.

[Related -Is This The Start Of A Correction?]

At the lower-end of the smartphone market, the company believes it must adopt a platform-driven approach to offer bundled solutions to drive Connectivity share and increase BRCM content per phone ($18-20 bundled vs. $10-12 3G baseband only). The company believes it can achieve attractive margins on the bundled platform, offsetting much lower profitability in standalone basebands.

In! basebands, Broadcom pulled its LTE roadmap ahead by one quarter, which effectively brings forward the ramp of the company's first LTE design win (dual core, Samsung) into early first quarter 2014.

Seymore believes this pull-in of the LTE roadmap was entirely driven by the Renesas acquisition and that most, if not all of Broadcom's current and future LTE baseband products will be based on Renesas acquired technology.

The company's quad-core LTE system on chip (SoC) was also pulled ahead to sample in the first half of 2014, earlier than the original mid-2014 timeframe, and perhaps most importantly, the company's CAT-6 FDD/TDD LTE-A thin modem is now scheduled to sample in mid-2014 versus second half of 2014 previously.

Seymore believes this accelerated timeline is a positive step, and continue to believe 2014 will be a make-or-break year as the economic model will require the company gain significant scale to drive profitability. Also, 2014 could be the year when Broadcom will either succeed or decide to exit the baseband business.

This needed scale can only be achieved in the near term if its CAT 6 FDD/TDD LTE-A thin modem is designed into a high volume "hero-phone" in 2H 2014 that ramps in the first half of 2015; such a design-win as a necessary prerequisite for Broadcom to remain in the baseband market beyond 2014.

Seymore said the company has a meaningful Connectivity opportunity related to the "Internet of Things." The consumer devices targeting these applications (wearables, health monitoring, etc) do not require baseband capability and, therefore, Broadcom is well positioned to win share.

Broadcom has delivered double digit growth over the past 3-4 years and materially outperformed the peer group in 2013. Networking revenues come from the following end-customers: service providers, data centers and enterprise, with the strongest growth from data center driven by web 2.0 capex.

Despite low-single digit service provider capex growth, Broadcom believes it is ! exposed t! o the fastest growing areas (carrier Ethernet, IP routers, 3G/4G wireless, packet optical) in the carrier market.

In new growth areas, Broadcom sees multi-core processing as significant growth opportunity with potential $3 billion served available market (SAM) in many applications including networking, storage and wireless infrastructure.

Wireless infrastructure (backhaul, radio heads, processors) is another growth area with potential SAM of $1 billion and Automotive Ethernet was also highlighted as a growth opportunity ($1 billion SAM) with this year's BMW X5 featuring Broadcom solutions for adaptive driving.

Broadcom recently raised its fourth quarter revenue outlook to $2 billion - $2.5 billion (Street expects $1.99 billion) from $1.975 billion, citing incremental strength across all segments, with slightly more upside in Networking. Fourth quarter gross margin guidance was raised to down 50-75bps from down 50-100bps due to favorable product mix.

Broadcom shares trade about 11.8 times its forward earnings. This multiple is a discount to the large-cap peer average of 14 times. They are down 17 percent this year and traded between $23.25 and $37.85 during the past 52-weeks.

Can McDonald’s Grill Up Higher Prices?

With shares of McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) trading around $96, is MCD an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, Canada, and Latin America — so just about every part of the world. Its restaurants offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages, as well as breakfast menus. The products provided by McDonald's fulfill cravings at competitive prices in convenient locations worldwide. The McDonald's craze shows no signs of slowing, so the company has continued its expansion to just about every nation on the globe. As consumers continue to enjoy McDonald's products, look for it to see rising profits.

As the world's largest fast food chain, McDonald's has been blasted for its wage practices for years. However, this month the government is ready to step in. According to Bloomberg, Democrat members of the U.S. Congress are encouraging McDonald's, along with a handful of other fast food chains, to raise wages for their store workers, communicating with them via a letter signed by representatives. Fifty-three members of Congress wrote in a letter that was mailed to restaurant executives Wednesday, "Too many hard-working families are being forced to depend on poverty-level wages. Paying fair wages and putting more spending money in the hands of consumers will strengthen our economy."

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

McDonald's stock has traded sideways in the last couple of years. The stock is currently surging higher and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, McDonald's is trading between its rising key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of McDonald's options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
McDonald's options	12.07%	0%	0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
December Options	Average	Average
January Options	Average	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call and put buyers or sellers, all neutral over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on McDonald's’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for McDonald's look like and, more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	6.29%	4.55%	2.44%	3.83%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	2.39%	2.43%	0.90%	1.90%
Earnings Reaction	-0.64%	-2.68%	-1.95%	0.57%

McDonald's has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have not been happy with McDonald's’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has McDonald's stock done relative to its peers, Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM), Burger King (NYSE:BKW), Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN), and sector?

	McDonald's	Yum Brands	Burger King	Wendy’s	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	9.51%	11.94%	29.44%	81.91%	17.96%

McDonald's has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

McDonald's is a well-recognized company that fulfills cravings and demand for quick and delicious food choices that many consumers across the globe enjoy. Democrat members of the U.S. Congress are encouraging McDonald's, along with a handful of other fast food chains, to raise wages for their store workers, communicating with them via a letter signed by representatives. The stock has been trading sideways in the last couple of years and is currently surging higher. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been rising. However, investors have not been happy with recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, McDonald's has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what McDonald's does this quarter.

Why Investors Should Not Be Worried About Chevron's Massive CapEx

One of the world's leading integrated energy companies, Chevron (CVX) has been spending enormous amounts of cash on some of its biggest projects to ramp up its production of oil and gas. As a result, the company has not returned as much cash to shareholders, through dividends and buybacks, as they would have liked. Following the global financial crisis, investors have favored companies with attractive dividends and buyback programs, as opposed to companies like Chevron, who invest in their long term future. This is one of the reasons why this oil giant's shares have remained under pressure, despite having attractive long term growth prospects.

Going Over the Budget

In its most recent quarterly results, Chevron reported a 25.6% year-over-year increase in capital and exploration expenses to $10.59 billion. A significant portion of this increase was attributed to the company's operations in the international markets, where its spending grew by 28% to $7.84 billion. In the U.S, Chevron spent around $2.7 billion, showing an increase of 18% from the same quarter last year. Overall, in the first nine months of the current year, Chevron has increased its capital and exploratory expenditure in the international markets by 32% to $21.3 billion and in the U.S by 18% to $7.6 billion.

Moreover, the current data for the first nine months clearly shows that capital spending in 2013 is going to be higher than its previous estimates, due to some of the land acquisitions. Chevron's management believes that their spending will be 10% higher than its planned $36.7 billion. Adding 10% to this budget will bring the total capital spending for the current year to around $40 billion. These higher levels of capital expenditures will likely continue in the coming years. For the next year, the capital budget will likely be in the range of $33 billion to $36 billion.

Going Above The I! ndustry Leader

Interestingly, in the previous quarter, Chevron's capital expenditure was even higher than the world's biggest listed energy major Exxon Mobil (XOM). Exxon Mobil is $180 billion bigger than Chevron, produces much higher volumes of oil and gas, and earns nearly twice as much in revenues as Chevron. However, in the first 9 months of 2013, Exxon Mobil's capital spending rose 19% to $32.57 billion while Chevron spent $28.92 billion, up 28% from last year. Moreover, in the previous quarter, Chevron spent nearly $100 million more than Exxon Mobil. More than 90% of Chevron's spending goes towards the upstream sector.

In other words, despite its considerably smaller size, Chevron could end up spending as much as Exxon Mobil in capital and exploratory expenditure in the current year. Given that the company is committed to keeping this high level of spending, this trend will likely continue in the coming years.

So how is Chevron keeping up with the massive capital spending budget of the industry titan Exxon Mobil? Unlike Exxon Mobil, which has significant exposure towards the struggling domestic natural gas sector, Chevron is more about oil and gets higher profits from there. As a result, despite the massive difference in their size, both companies have relatively little difference in cash flows. Even with lower production and revenues, in the previous quarter, Chevron managed to generate cash flows of $10.3 billion as opposed to Exxon Mobil's $13.6 billion.

European Rivals

Unlike the American oil majors, the European oil major BP Plc (BP) will slowly increase its capital expenditure, amid the ongoing trial related to the Gulf of Mexico's oil spill. BP's annual capital expenditure will be around $24 billion in 2014 and will increase to $27 billion by 2020. The business still has to spend a lot of cash to shareholders to restore their confidence.

On other hand, some of the companies like Total S.A. (TOT), which has recently become the third biggest! oil comp! any from Europe after its market-cap surpassed that of BP will decrease its capital expenditure after years of high spending. For the current year, Total will spend around $28 billion but will reduce its annual expenditure to around $24.5 billion between 2015 and 2017.

Long Term Future

The demand for oil is expected to increase by 23% and to tap into this demand; Chevron would require additional production of around 65 million barrels per day by 2035. In other words, the company needs to pump 390 billion barrels of new oil over the next 25 years. Moreover, according to EIA, the natural gas demand will also increase by almost 43% by 2035, which will make it an attractive sector in the coming years .

There are enormous opportunities of growth lying ahead, which is why Chevron is spending cash aggressively. The business has lots of projects in its pipeline, through which, Chevron will be able to significantly increase its output.

Chevron currently has around 50 projects in its pipeline of over $250 million that will come online by 2017. Chevron has invested more than a $1 billion in 16 of these projects. Its large deepwater projects at the Gulf of Mexico will come online by the end of next year. The massive Gorgon LNG project is expected to begin in 2015 and Wheatstone LNG shipment project is expected to start in 2016. Furthermore, through investment in through Shale and other unconventional plays, Chevron will add more than 100,000 barrels per day to its total production through 2017.

In short, due to its massive capital spending, Chevron will generate significant returns in the long run.

Notes:

Chevron Jefferies Global Energy Conference Transcript [Pdf]

Exxon Mobil Q3 2013 Earnings Release

Chevron Q3 2013 Earnings Release [Pdf]

Disclosure: This article was written by Sarfaraz A. Khan, with valuable contribution from Gohar Yousuf, research assistant at Half Bridge Business Review. Neither Sarfaraz A. Khan, nor Gohar Yousuf have any positio! ns in the! stock(s) mentioned in this article.
About the author:Sarfaraz A. Khan is a capital market analyst and finance writer. His specialty lies in energy stocks. He also covers consumer goods, services sector, technology stocks, emerging markets and ETFs. His work appears on TheStreet, Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool and GuruFocus.

Visit Sarfaraz A. Khan's Website

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